Mass Shootings and How to Prepare

Mass shootings naturally attract attention. Though it is easy to blame the media for disproportionately covering such events, the reality is the media covers them because they attract the public’s attention en masse. Each time such an event occurs, there is a subsequent round of reactions from all sides of the firearms debate. The inevitable political grandstanding to enact more governmental control over firearms coincides with a measurable increase in people taking firearms classes.

As an instructor who taught a firearms class focused on countering mass shooters for over five years, I observed that these classes were under-attended when there was not a recent mass shooting in the news, and over-attended when there was. The unfortunate reality is that mass shootings are newsworthy events. They do generate a significant amount of public interest, and they do drive predictable behaviors.

What are the actual gun-related death statistics and what exactly is a mass shooting? 

The FBI defines a mass shooting as an incident where four or more people are killed with a gun in a single incident with no “cooling-off period” between the murders, typically in a single location.  By this definition, less than 1% of gun-related homicides fall into this category. In 2022 there was a total of 48,117 gun-related deaths in the U.S. Based on the population of the U.S. in 2022 that is a 1 in 6,766 chance of being killed with a gun yearly. 

By comparison, ignoring age and health, you have a much greater (1 in 464) chance of having a heart attack each year. Additionally, within those 48,177 gun-related deaths in 2022, over half were suicides (28,039) and 1,060 were police-related shootings. This leaves 19,018 gun-related deaths in 2022, so the odds of being killed with a gun if you are not suicidal or engaged in a shooting with police is 1 in 17,139. Even these odds are likely much lower for most of us, as most homicides occur within large metropolitan areas and are often related to other criminal and/or gang-related activities. Thus, if you are not regularly committing crimes involving firearms in one of the nation’s five largest urban areas, your odds of being killed with a firearm are twice as unlikely or more than the national average. 

If we use the FBI definition, there were between 29-36 mass shootings in 2022. However, many sites devoted to furthering restrictions on civilian gun ownership list the number of mass shootings in 2022 from 648 to 692. Assuming the highest number of deaths reported from mass shooting incidents (692), your odds of being killed in a mass shooting is 1 in 477,025. Again, for comparison, you have a 1 in 77,743 chance of dying by drowning each year (six times more likely). 

The reality is that no matter how you look at it, mass shootings are very unlikely, but very newsworthy (based on public and political interest). Similar to plane crashes (six in 2022 with 174 fatalities), mass shooting events are very rare, but also very emotional and terrifying events. Like it or not, they make interesting news, and the odds, logic, and FBI definitions really don’t matter. For instance, most sources focused on gun control list mass shootings to be near 700 in 2022. This would mean that there would be a mass shooting approximately twice a day every day of the year. Obviously, the 29-36 number is more accurate at approximately two a month. But if you ask many Americans, they will parrot the larger numbers without much thought. See Table 1 for a side-by-side listing of the odds of various events.  

Table 1: What are the Odds? 

Calculated using 2022 numbers from CDC and FBI sources and compared to U.S. 2022 population. (1) Including suicides and police action (2) Only including homicides (Note: many of these homicides are likely criminal, and/or gang-related.)

No matter how you slice the numbers, the reality is that mass shootings will continue to capture the attention of the nation. And though very unlikely, the overexposure by the media makes it very easy to imagine it happening to us. Before we discuss the realities of possible responses to a mass shooting, it is important to realize it is an improbable event to find ourselves in. Another factor to consider here is that 85% of mass shootings happen in posted gun-free zones (making it even less likely I would be present at such an event).  

What does a mass shooting look like? 

The profile of a mass shooting event starts with locations. The majority, 85% actually, occur in gun-free zones not protected by armed individuals. Of the mass shootings at locations with a large group of people, 29% happen at workplaces and 24.3% at schools. Other locations are places without cover or clear exits, like churches, malls, and nightclubs.  

Next is the profile of who the shooter is most likely to be. The profile of the average mass shooter is not as homogenous as one would assume, even though the media does pick and choose which mass shootings to attend to (i.e. they are not covering two a month). Although the events that are covered are often driven by the number of lives lost, the shooters covered by the media do tend to be a little more stereotypical than the reality. The average mass shooter is male (95.7%). On average, they are younger, with an average age of 33.4 years old. As for race, 54.1% are White and 22% are Black, with 75.1% using just handguns. 

It is worth noting that primary schools and church mass shooters are more likely to be White (81% and 73% respectively), and workplace and governmental mass shooters are more likely than the overall average to be Black (32% and 33% respectively). The shooter almost always acts alone, and 56% of mass shootings end with suicide, 28% end with a direct encounter with police, and 13% end with bystander intervention. 

What should I do if I am in a mass shooting?

Most modern police procedures (unfortunately, not all) are based on quick response times and confronting the shooter sooner rather than later to save lives. However, this is also a potential danger for the bystander who decides to intervene, especially if armed. In 2021 in Arvada, Colorado a bystander engaged a mass shooter, successfully ending his rampage to only then be misidentified as the shooter by an arriving police officer. He was armed with a handgun and a rifle retrieved from his truck. The officer shot and killed him and was found to have acted in accordance with the facts as he perceived them. Although a rare instance, it is a reminder to the civilian bystander of the potential danger of engaging a mass shooter.

There are some realistic steps you can take to reduce your vulnerability to such a horrible event. Also, you should make some decisions before you are ever in a mass shooting. Many of the same skills you would learn in preparation for any self-defense situation also apply to a mass shooting. Situational awareness, both personal and environmental, cannot be overstated. Personal situational awareness is paying attention to your direct surroundings with an eye toward potential threats. Environmental awareness is paying attention to your location, places of cover, exits, entrances, etc. Being aware of the potential profiles of mass shooters and the locations they target can help in this awareness.  

Though incredibly unlikely, if you are confronted with a mass shooting, the same skills you’ve learned for other defensive situations will apply. A common theme in civilian self-defense is, “Avoid, Escape, Defend.” This is used to remind us that our primary responsibility is to avoid being in areas with higher chances of the need for self-defense. If we find ourselves in such a situation, we should escape if it can be done safely. “Defend” is the third action, which is the use of force, which we should only engage if absolutely necessary.

This same idea is seen in the most common advice for those finding themselves in a mass shooting; “Run, Hide, Fight.” The problem for some of us may be wondering if we can live with ourselves if we escape from a mass shooting. For myself, I would sleep well if I got myself and my family out of a public area being attacked. However, I am less sure I would feel as positive if I escaped a mass shooting from a location (such as an elementary school) if I had the tools and knowledge to potentially stop a mass shooter before more young lives were lost. Like all self-defense situations these ‘what ifs’ will be easier to navigate if we have thought through our responses before finding ourselves in the thick of a developing situation. Each person will settle on different reactions, but fortunately for most of us, we will likely never need to put these plans into motion.