Emergency Preparation: Differing Lengths of Disruption

In a previous article of my Emergency Preparation series, I discussed categorizing potential emergencies by likelihood and length of service disruption. These two factors
are linked, as temporary disruptions (1-7 days) are more likely than intermediate disruptions (1 week to a month), which are likewise more likely than long-term (1-6 months) or permanent (6+ months) disruptions.

The purpose of breaking down the spectrum of service interruptions into four categories was to provide a plan for preparing for the most likely events first, and then as time and resources allow, expand your preparations into the other categories. Using these four broad categories as a guide (temporary, intermediate, long-term, and permanent) this article will examine how to prepare for each eventuality.

Long term preparedness books and supplies
Longer-term preparation will likely include needed tools, medical supplies, and a library of books detailing needed skills.

Temporary Disruptions in Services (1-7 days)

Temporary disruptions are by far the most common scenario and one that my family and I have lived through multiple times. The disruption in services (power, water, emergency services) in these cases is likely to be short-lived. After an initial decision based on immediate safety (does my family need to leave the area?), core needs that should be addressed in a temporary disruption are water, shelter and warmth, first-aid, food, and home defense; approximately in that order.

communication and detection equipment
Having reliable communication and threat detection equipment can provide needed information to decide if the best plan is to bug out or shelter in place.

Water

Access to clean drinking water as well as water for cooking, cleaning, and sanitation is the first factor to consider. The goal in being fully prepared is to determine the water usage expectations for your family for seven days, and then have those supplies available. Drinking water is obviously the first priority (about a gallon a person a day for full hydration), but it is worth considering what would happen if the water system was unavailable for additional water needs (the average shower takes 17 gallons, and the average toilet flush is about 1-2 gallons). Do you have pets or other dependent animals that also have daily water needs? There are many ways to cheaply stockpile water, from simply storing bottled water to buying 5-to-55-gallon opaque food-grade plastic containers (you may want to consider using a water treatment if bulk storing water).

Shelter

After ensuring water needs are met, the next step is shelter. Make sure your shelter is secure and you have access to alternative ways of generating needed heat and power in the event of no electricity. First-aid and fire extinguishers are a good idea even in times with full emergency services, but as those services become less available and sporadic the need for such equipment increases. Make sure you have up-to-date and accessible fire extinguishers as well as a first aid kit (or multiple) that is
equipped with the tools needed for most medical emergencies.

First Aid

As you prepare for more events and train in first aid techniques the need for quick action becomes very apparent. Personally, over the years I have gone from one first aid kit generally in my range bag, to one in every vehicle, on the tractor, in the barn, and in the workshop. There are many articles (I may write one as well in the future) that go over what should be in a good first aid kit. But for emergency preparation, focus more on life-saving equipment (tourniquet, Quikclot, gauze, chest seal, pressure
bandages) than comfort (Band-Aids, sting, and pain relief). Additionally, make sure you have trained with all the tools in your first aid pack.

Home Defense

Just as fire and first aid become more important to be able to address in the face of a temporary disruption in emergency services, so is home defense. Historically, though, rise in property crimes during limited disruptions are minimal.

Food

Although food is not immediately a concern, as we can last 1-2 months if healthy without food, the impacts of not eating start to occur within 24 hours and can include nausea and metabolic changes. The average adult needs approximately 2000 calories per day. Make sure you have at least 7 days of food stored per person (again don’t forget pets) to provide the final level of preparation for temporary disruptions. Do remember to consider the cooking needs of the food stored. For instance, dried rice and beans are great options, but require heat and additional water.

Intermediate Interruptions in Services (1 week to 1 month)

Though less likely than temporary disruptions, these do happen and my family and I have experienced three such events (two from storms and one from supply chain issues coupled with civil unrest). Many of the same factors and supplies needed for temporary disruptions are also present for intermediate interruptions, but with longer duration. Do you have water, alternative fuels for heat and cooking, food, and medical supplies to last a month?

As the disruption in services stretches past a week, additional concerns may need to be considered. Are there family members who need regular medicines, and is there over a month of supplies of these drugs available? Do any of the medicines need to be refrigerated? If so do you have a plan to provide the needed refrigeration if there is no power? Sanitation and trash may start to become an issue. Do you have a plan and supplies to safely remove trash from attracting vermin and disease if trash services are no longer running?

One of the assumptions of an intermediate disruption is that it will resolve and there will be some level of some services still available (just reduced, slowed, or only for extreme emergencies). The space and resources needed to provide a full month of supplies are obviously greater than for a temporary outage but can be manageably built up over time. We started by making sure we had a week’s worth of supplies and then over the months focused on expanding these supplies a week at a time. Home defense may start to become more of an issue as well. Such outages, especially in denser urban areas often co-occur with a spike in civil unrest, rioting, and property crimes.

Emergency preparedness medical supplies
As the length of disruption lengthens, the need to be able to address medical issues with no outside assistance increases. This creates a larger demand on supplies and skills.

Long-term Interruptions in Services (1-6 months)

As the disruption in services extends past the one-month mark, we are likely entering a more severe situation that has overtaxed the infrastructure to the breaking point and exceeds the ability of services to bounce back quickly. There is still an assumption the services will return, but the time needed has extended from weeks to months. There has not been an example of such an event impacting a multi-state area within recent U.S. history, but we can see such events playing out in war-torn parts of the world.

Generally, in such situations, there are additional factors to consider beyond just ensuring having the needed water, food, and medicines available for each person for up to 6 months. Food storage becomes more of an issue. Foods that can be stored for long periods of time start to become a needed addition to just having a backlog of a month of commonly used foods. If there has been a disruption lasting into the months the goal also shifts from longer-term mitigation while waiting for delayed services (fire, medical, police) to assuming there are no services available. Any eventuality must be dealt with by your family’s skill sets and available resources.

Most historical examples of such long-term disruptions also are accompanied by civil unrest, hoarding, rioting, widespread disease, and/or sharp increases in violent and property crime. Communications become an issue as well. Can you gather emergency information and communicate if cell service is unavailable?

Long-term power solutions become an issue. Do you have access to natural gas, how long will it last? How many devices do you have that can be hand-crank powered? Do you want to invest in solar power alternatives for other electronic devices, cooking, and tools? What long-term sanitation and trash solutions would you need in place for over a month of services being down?

What items do you have that will retain value for trading, such as precious metals, extra food, alcohol, or ammunition? Interestingly, reports from Eastern Europe that suffered from long-term disruptions due to wars identified butane lighters as the most valuable item, and precious metals became all but useless after the first
few weeks.

packs of butane lighters for emergency preparedness - to use as trade items
The first goal is to make sure you have what your family needs to endure disruptions, but as weeks drag to months having a backstock of items to trade is a worthwhile investment.

Skills and Materials

The basic test for long-term preparations is that if you don’t have it on hand prior to the start of the disruption you likely will not have access to it. Additionally, if there is a needed skill not known by your family, you may not be able to rely on others for that skill. Everyone has limited time and resources to spend, but part of this is deciding what skills and materials you want to develop.

As a part of preparing for such long-term outages, we evaluated our tools, supplies, and even parts and materials. We started thinking of what we would do pre-emergency if “X” happened. The answer was often to call someone to fix it or go to the hardware store for the needed parts and equipment to do it ourselves. Part of this exercise resulted in our developing a wider array of tools, parts and materials, medical supplies, and equipment.

We also assessed our skills into three categories:

  1. Skills that we have.
  2. Skills we didn’t have but could be self-taught with the right resources.
  3. Skills we did not have and likely could not be learned during an emergency.

Based on these categories we made sure we had the supplies needed for our current skills. For instance, I have built up a supply of wood, nails, screws, paint, electrical supplies, etc. to make sure my residential construction skills could function without a run to the hardware store. Likewise, we gathered a selection of medical supplies that matched my wife’s and my current level of training.

For the next category, we started purchasing books designed to teach skills we would potentially need, and could learn, but did not currently have. I often joke that when we hit the one-month mark of a disaster I will have a lot of reading to do. This preparation library largely remains unread outside of a brief review to make sure we have the tools and supplies needed to use these skills once learned.

Finally, we evaluated the skills that could not be easily self-taught. This can result in creating a wish list or future trainings to pursue to further build self-sufficiency or as a guide to making sure we have backups of things we could not repair or learn to repair.

Permanent Interruptions in Services (6+ months)

The real differentiation of this level of preparation is that the assumption that services will return grows less likely every month. This is most likely due to a worldwide event that has overcome all recovery systems resulting in long-term breakdowns in society. All the factors discussed in long-term situations continue to apply at this level, but it is now safe to say if you do not have it, can’t make it or trade for it, you will go without.

As months drag into the first year, the food needs to be grown, water needs to be made safe, and medical issues must be dealt with. If there is no longer a viable biosphere (i.e., will the environment allow farming) then you are looking at needing to stockpile all supplies for as long as you hope to survive (not a cheap option in time, resources, and storage space).

If there is a viable biosphere, then the focus needs to be on transitioning from living off pre-prepared supplies to making, growing, gathering, and storing all that is needed. This is also not an easy task. There are many seed vaults (packets of produce seeds to start self-sufficient farming), but do you have the skills needed to farm—or at least the guides on how to learn? It is worth noting that assuming a successful growing season with adequate rain it takes between 1-2 acres of farmed land to support one person for a year. Again don’t forget any pets in that equation as well if you are hoping to provide for them as well.

Self-defense is also likely much more important as the increase in violence and crime seen in long-term disruptions are likely to be even worse.

Emergency Preparedness seed vaults
Having the seeds needed to start farming is a great first step, but do you have the land needed, the tools, and the skills?

Summary

My family has been fortunate to have started being fairly ready for temporary interruptions of services. A few longer events restructured our thinking, and over a period of about a year we moved from being fully prepared for temporary disruptions to also being prepared for intermediate interruptions. Moving out of 2020 we started focusing on being ready for long-term disruptions, which is a process that continues to this day.

Additionally, as we moved to a larger rural area with more land and a source of fresh water we started tentatively and realistically putting aside some resources (some farming tools, books, seeds) to allow us to at least make the effort to transition if we find ourselves in a permanent disruption. I am confident we are ready for temporary or intermediate events. I am reasonably confident we could weather a long-term interruption. I am not that confident of a permanent disruption, but I am slowly working on that level. My hope is that our own journey can provide insights and guidance to others as well.

Joel Nadler is the Training Director at Indy Arms Company in Indianapolis and co-owner of Tactical Training Associates.  He writes for several gun-focused publications and is an avid supporter of the right to self-sufficiency, including self-defense. Formerly a full professor, he has a Ph.D. in Psychology and now works as a senior consultant living on a horse ranch in rural Indiana.  Feel free to follow him on Instagram @TacticalPhD.

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